I've not written anything or even posted a logical fallacy in over a week. Oops. Blogging is still pretty new, so I'm gonna call mulligan on this one and just distract you with a logical fallacy.
The Gambler's Fallacy is the false assumption that events that are separate and isolated from any other event in question can effect the outcome of another event. A common example used to explain this is a coin toss. Most people (incorrectly) assume that if a person tosses the same coin 3 times and gets three heads, the probability of getting a tails has become higher. What is not being considered here is that every coin toss has a 50% chance of being either heads or tails. Regardless of what the last toss resulted in, the chance at the new coin toss of it being a heads is 50%.
No comments:
Post a Comment